BRENT TECHS: (N5) Testing Resistance
- RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: $66.59/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
- PRICE: $66.27 @ 07:13 BST May 14
- SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. The corrective cycle remains in play and attention is on key resistance at $66.59, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, a move lower would refocus attention key support at $58.00, Apr 9 low. A breach of this support would resume the downtrend.
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RATINGS: Italy Upgraded By S&P On Friday
Ratings action of note on Friday:
- Fitch affirmed Spain at A-, Outlook Positive.
- Fitch affirmed Switzerland at AAA, Outlook Stable.
- S&P affirmed Hungary at BBB-, Outlook revised to Negative from Stable).
- S&P upgraded Italy to BBB+; Outlook Stable.
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed Lithuania at A (high), Stable Trend
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed Malta at A (high), Stable Trend.
GOLD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $3347.7 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3300.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3291.8 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: $3245.5 - High Apr 11
- PRICE: $3229.7 @ 07:18 BST Apr 14
- SUP 1: $3045.1 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2956.7/2960.9 - Low Apr 7 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s rally confirms and reinforces this condition. The yellow metal has traded through $3167.8, the Apr 3 high, to resume the primary uptrend and trade to fresh all-time highs. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 3063.4, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 3291.8, a Fibonacci projection.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 120.12 High High Mar 4
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 119.07 High Apr 4 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 118.37 High Apr 11
- PRICE: 118.10 @ Close Apr 11
- SUP 1: 117.28/116.06 Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 115.53 0.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 - Apr 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 115.00 Round number support
BTP futures rallied sharply higher from last Wednesday’s low. However, the latest move down highlights a potential reversal of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 bull cycle. If correct, the move down exposes key support at 115.75, the Mar 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 119.07, the Apr 8 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish reversal development.
