BRENT TECHS: (N5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: $66.57/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
- PRICE: $64.56 @ 07:12 BST May 15
- SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. Attention is on key resistance at $66.57, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, but remains intact for now. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention key support at $58.00, Apr 9 low. A breach of this support would resume the downtrend.
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BRENT TECHS: (M5) Trend Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20
- RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $70.59/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $67.95 - Low Mar 5
- PRICE: $65.04 @ 07:11 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: $58.40 - Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support
Brent futures continue to trade above last week’s high. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at $70.83.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Resumes Its Uptrend
- RES 4: 120.65 1.382 proj of the MAr 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 2: 120.12 High High Mar 4
- RES 1: 119.43 Intraday high
- PRICE: 119.41 @ 07:03 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 117.91 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger
BTP futures rallied sharply higher Monday. The rally resulted in a break of resistance at 119.07, the Apr 4 high. The breach confirms the end of recent Apr 4 - 9 correction and cancels what appeared last week to be a developing bearish threat. Sights are on 119.29, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 bear leg (pierced). A clear break of this level would open 120.12, the Mar 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 117.91, the 20-day EMA.
UK DATA: Hard to get a great reading from the labour market data at first glance
- AWE Earnings a tenth weaker than expected for both total economy and private regular.
- The LFS employment change was a bit higher than expected (but unemployment rate was still in line with consensus).
- It looks as though there is a big downward surprise to the flash HMRC payrolls print.
- No huge movement and hard to really get a great reading from the data at first glance. Will look into the details now and follow up.
