COPPER TECHS: (N5) Resistance Intact

May-21 13:31
  • RES 4: $541.50 - High Mar 26 and a key resistance 
  • RES 3: $521.30 - High Mar 28 
  • RES 2: $509.85 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 26 - Apr 7 bear leg     
  • RES 1: $498.25 - High Apr 23 and a key short-term resistance   
  • PRICE: $469.15 @ 14:20 BST May 21
  • SUP 1: $447.75 - Low May 9
  • SUP 2: $436.00/407.40 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger 
  • SUP 3: $400.00 - Psychological round number     
  • SUP 4: $392.10 - Low Aug 7 ‘24 low (cont) and a key support    

Copper futures are trading in a range. The metal traded sharply lower on Apr 30, undermining the recent bullish theme. This suggests that the rally between Apr 7 - 23 has been a correction. Key S/T resistance has been defined at $498.25, the Apr 23 high. A resumption of weakness would expose $436.00, the Apr 10 low, ahead of $407.40, the Apr 7 low and key support. On the upside, a break of $498.25 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

Historical bullets

FED: Chicago's Goolsbee: Central Bank Independence Key To Anchor L-R Infl Exp

Apr-21 13:01

CNBC anchors trying to pin down Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (2025 voter, dove) on the impact of President Trump potentially replacing Fed Chair Powell - Goolsbee won't be drawn into the speculation but he is emphatic that central bank independence is crucial to keeping longer-run inflation expectations down.

  • Goolsbee says without central bank independence, you get "higher inflation, worse growth, higher unemployment." And he cites Paul Volcker's example of tightening policy to quell inflation, saying "sometimes the Fed has to do the hard job".
  • That said, asked if he still sees rates being lower 12 - 18 months from now: "I still think that", identifying the March Dot Plot as a guide to the overall direction of rates.

US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'25 10Y Ratio Put Spread

Apr-21 12:35
  • 11,179 TYM5 108/111 2x1 put spds, 32 ref 110-25.5

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Large Jun'25 2Y Buy

Apr-21 12:31
  • +20,000 TUM5 103-26.5, buy through 103-26 post time offer at 0815:05ET, DV01 $736,000. The 2Y contract trades 103-26.5 last (+1.12).