COPPER TECHS: (N5) Remains Above Support  Resistance

Jun-06 13:19
  • RES 4: $541.50 - High Mar 26 and a key resistance 
  • RES 3: $521.30 - High Mar 28 
  • RES 2: $509.85 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 26 - Apr 7 bear leg
  • RES 1: $506.15 - High Jun 5 
  • PRICE: $490.70 @ 14:08 BST Jun 6 
  • SUP 1: $473.75 - 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 2: $447.75 - Low May 9
  • SUP 3: $436.00/407.40 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger    
  • SUP 4: $400.00 - Psychological round number   

Copper futures traded higher Thursday before pulling back. The climb resulted in a break of resistance at $498.25, the Apr 23 high. The breach undermines the recent bearish theme and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. This has opened $509.85, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a pivot support is seen at $473.75, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: Stoxx600 call buyer

May-07 13:13

SXXP (20th June) 557.5c, bought for 1.6 and 1.7 in ~15k.

ITALY DATA: Weak Retail Sales Momentum Suggests Consumption Drag In Q1

May-07 13:13

Weak Italian retail sales momentum suggests sequential quarterly household consumption growth was tepid - possibly negative – in Q1. 

  • March nominal retail sales fell 0.5% in March. The three analysts submitting forecasts for the print were between +0.1 and +0.3%. Real sales were also -0.5% M/M, the fifth negative sequential print in the last six months. That dragged 3m/3m growth down to -0.59% (vs -0.42% prior).
  • ISTAT retailer confidence has been expansionary throughout the last 3 years, but momentum has been waning in 2025.
  • Although the Q1 flash GDP report indicated that domestic demand made a positive contribution to growth, a detailed split across expenditure component was not available.   
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CROSS ASSET: Estoxx Futures closes the Gap, Bund test a new high

May-07 13:09
  • Estoxx futures has now closed the Opening gap down to 5209.00, not a Tech level.
  • This latest push lower helps Bund print a new intraday high, but no real trigger for the move, mostly some order related flow, and a continuation since Bond went bid post the French Auctions this Morning.
  • Support in VGM5 is at 5178.00, this is only Yesterday's low.