COPPER TECHS: (N5) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: $541.50 - High Mar 26 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $521.30 - High Mar 28
- RES 2: $509.85 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 26 - Apr 7 bear leg
- RES 1: $498.25 - High Apr 23
- PRICE: $488.50 @ 14:15 BST Apr 24
- SUP 1: $461.50 - Low Apr 17
- SUP 2: $436.00/407.40 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $400.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $392.10 - Low Aug 7 ‘24 low (cont) and a key support
The latest rally in Copper futures highlights a stronger reversal and the contract is holding on to its gains. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at $473.65. This signals scope for an extension and sights are on $509.85 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A clear reversal lower would refocus attention key support at $407.40, the Apr 7 low. Initial support to watch is $461.50, the Apr 17 low.
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EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls
SPX: 5,791.8 (+0.4%); DJIA: 42,737 (+0.4%/+154pts); NDX: 20,258.8 (+0.4%).
UK FISCAL: Spring Statement: Key Timings
- Chancellor Reeves will begin delivering the Spring Statement tomorrow in the House of Commons immediately after Prime Ministers’ Questions concludes – so slightly after 12:30GMT / 13:30CET / 8:30ET.
- Given the limited content, the FT is reporting that the speech will only be 25 minutes long.
- The gilt remit and full OBR forecasts are normally published when the statement is finished – so around 13:00GMT (possibly slightly before or a little later). Note that in previous years with longer speeches, this has been more like 13:30.
- We would then expect the DMO to announce the consultation agenda for its FQ1 issuance (the remainder of April through to June) at 15:30GMT. This will likely include a more granular breakdown of which auctions in FQ1 are for each maturity bucket, with guidance on which gilts will be issued (see page 4 of the MNI Spring Statement Preview).
- The DMO is to hold consultations with investors and GEMMs on 31 March.
- The rest of the FQ1 (remainder of April through to June) gilt operations calendar will be published at 7:30BST on Friday 4 April.
MONTH-END EXTENSIONS: CIBC Point To Modest CAD Index Extension
CIBC note that “the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index will experience a modest extension of +0.033yrs on Apr 1, mainly from Canada Apr 1/26 (C$10.19bln) and Quebec Apr 1/26 (C$2.49bln) bonds rolling out of the index. The Short segment will also extend by +0.024yrs for the same reason. Meanwhile, modified durations of the Mid and Long segments will remain basically unchanged that day. Payment of approximately C$446mln in Apr 1 coupons will have minimal contribution to the extension.”
