NORTH KOREA: N. Korea Test-Fires Cruise Missiles After Warship Accident
Yonhap News Agency reported that North Korea test-fired several cruise missiles towards the East Sea earlier today from the Songok area in South Hamgyong Province. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it was monitoring the situation and had the capacity to 'overwhelmingly' respond to any provocations.
- This comes after the launch of North Korea's new destroyer on Wednesday was interrupted by a 'serious accident', which the country's Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un called a 'criminal act'. North Korea admited that parts of the warship were 'crushed' as a result of 'inexperienced command and operational carelessness'.
- Observers noted that it was unusual for North Korea to promptly disclose a military-related failure. Moon Keun-sik of Seoul's Hanyang University told Associated Press that 'the reason why North Korea disclosed the incident is it wants to show it’s speeding up the modernization of its navy forces and expresses its confidence that it can eventually build' a stronger navy.
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FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
USDJPY 1.61bn at 140.00 (thu).
USDCAD 1.91bn at 1.3800 (fri).
USDJPY 1.07bn at 140.00 (mon).
- EURUSD: 1.1450 (782mln).
- USDJPY: 140.55 (330mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6400 (804mln).
- USDCNY: 7.3000 (586mln).
- EURSEK: 10.9000 (334mln).
GILTS: Twist Steepening Early Today, Dovish BoE Repricing Extends
Dovish repricing in BoE-dated OIS supports the front end of the curve, while weakness in long end Tsys since Thursday’s close weighs on 10+-Year gilts.
- Futures 92.25 last (92.09-40 range).
- Initial support and resistance unchanged at 91.73/92.63.
- Yields are 3bp lower to 3bp higher, curve twist steepens.
- 2s10s ~10bp below cycle closing highs, last 68.2bp.
- 5s30s ~2.5bp below cycle closing highs, last 133.1bp.
- Risks seem titled towards continued steepening given the UK’s economic and fiscal fragility, while the macro environment adds further weight to that view.
- Illiquid market conditions in the long end and spill over from Tsys have provided further sources of pressure in recent weeks.
- BoE-dated OIS now showing 91bp of cuts through year-end vs. 88bp early today.
- Little of note on the UK calendar on Tuesday, which will leave post-holiday adjustments and macro cues at the fore.
- In addition to the Wednesday risk events outlined in our GBP STIR bullet, note that tomorrow will see the release of public sector finance data and the resulting DMO remit revision. We will provide greater colour on this later today.
SILVER TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.117 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg
- PRICE: $32.476 @ 08:23 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support
Silver is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery undermines a bearish theme. Price has traded through an important resistance around the 50-day EMA - at $32.269. The break higher signals scope for a test of $33.117, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $30.577, the Apr 10 low.
