POLAND: MPC's Kotecki, Wnorowski Still See Room For Rate Cuts This Year
- A couple of Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members spoke to the media as the blackout period after last week's rate decision expired. As a reminder, the panel left the reference rate unchanged at 5.75% but its rhetoric turned more hawkish, both in the post-meeting statement and at the press conference with the Governor, who took rate cuts off the table until 2026.
- Ludwik Kotecki told Bloomberg that the central bank could start cutting rates in July and has room to deliver 50-100bp worth of easing this year. By the first meeting of 2H25, uncertainty associated with the presidential election will dissipate, and the MPC will have a new inflation projection. Kotecki argued that the impact of the withdrawal of household energy price caps will be temporary, economic growth is relatively weak, while the unwinding of QE will further tighten policy.
- Henryk Wnorowski told PAP that "the scenario of interest-rate cuts in 2025 is still realistic." In his view, it will "obviously not [happen] in Q1, but it seems that no one expects it," even as there may still be room to discuss easing in March. Wnorowski said that the stickiness of inflation is a serious risk, but also called the zloty "very strong."
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Poland could have room to lower rates by 50-100bp this year, starting from 2H25. In their view, tightening fiscal policy by 0.5% of GDP would increase this space by 50bp.
- DGP reported that the government has not yet published the President's decision about the nomination of judge Bogdan Swieczkowski for the position of Chief Justice of the Constitutional Tribunal.
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TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
