POLAND: MPC's Dabrowski Says Poland Ready to Cautiously Lower Rates

The Financial Times reports that the US has said it is, “prepared to provide intelligence assets and battlefield oversight to any western security blanket for postwar Ukraine and take part in a European-led air defence shield for the country, European and Ukrainian officials said.”

• According to FT, “Trump told European leaders last week America would be part of “co-ordination” of security guarantees for postwar Ukraine, something Kyiv has demanded to deter a future attack from Russia after any peace deal.”
• The report continues: “It could still be rescinded, they said. But it represents a significant shift in stance from the Trump administration — which earlier this year ruled out any US participation in protecting post-conflict Ukraine — and has buoyed European officials who have spent months lobbying Washington to lend more support to Kyiv."
• With the prospect of a peace deal with Russia appearing increasingly remote, Ukraine's primary objective over the coming weeks is to formalise a post-war security architecture with Europe that can be backstopped by the US. With a robust security guarantee in place, Kyiv will be better positioned to address the territorial exchanges demanded by Moscow.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a statement on Saturday: “At present, the teams of Ukraine, the United States, and European partners are working on their architecture. All the developments will be ready in the coming days.”

Latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from September'25 to December'25 below. Percentage complete currently 70%-80% ahead "First Notice" date this Friday, August 29. Current roll details:

• TUU5/TUZ5 appr 1,266,500 from -9.12 to -8.75, -9.0 last; 80% complete
• FVU5/FVZ5 appr 1,528,800 from -5.5 to -5.0, -5.25 last; 70% complete
• TYU5/TYZ5 appr 926,800 from -1.25 to -0.5, -0.75 last; 71% complete
• UXYU5/UXYZ5 app 550,300 from -0.25 to +0.5, 0.00 last; 72% complete
• USU5/USZ5 appr 312,600 from 12.0 to 12.75, 12.25 last; 79% complete
• WNU5/WNZ5 appr 435,700 from 7.0 to 8.25, 7.75 last; 74% complete
• Reminder, Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30.

• EUR/USD: Aug29 $1.1600(E1.3bln), $1.1625(E4.0bln), $1.1700(E1.1bln), $1.1725(E1.1bln)
• USD/JPY: Aug29 Y146.50($1.1bln)
• EUR/GBP: Aug29 Gbp0.8563-80(E2.0bln)