NBP: MPC Members See Potential For Further Easing Next Year

A number of Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members took the floor this week to discuss their views on the monetary policy outlook after the expiry of the media blackout following their final meeting of 2025 (-25bp). As a reminder, Governor Adam Glapiński indicated that he would be comfortable with leaving the reference rate at 4%, but other members may push for further cuts to 3.75-3.50% after a pause at the beginning of 2026.

• Ireneusz Dąbrowski said that further interest-rate cuts are possible in 2026 but the MPC may move into 'wait-and-see' mode at the beginning of 2026 because of uncertainty around inflation data and the need to proceed with caution. While he was unable to provide clarity on the likely timing of the next cut, he did not rule out eventually taking the reference rate to or below 3% over the longer term, if inflation trends remain benign.
• Henryk Wnorowski noted that the key rate could fall to around 3% in 2026, adding that his terminal-rate estimate shifted closer to this round figure from 3.5% before. At the same time, he noted that he would not rule out raising rates if necessary, something that he wouldn't have said before.
• Iwona Duda signalled that the room for monetary easing is narrowing, even as the panel still has an easing bias. She revealed that March was being mentioned in discussions about the next interest-rate cut as the MPC stuck with its data-dependent stance. She saw the terminal rate at 3.75-3.50%.
• Ludwik Kotecki noted that the central bank could deliver another 25bp rate cut in March or April at the earliest and signalled comfort with a real rate of 1%. This would mean a reference rate of 3.75%, with headline inflation expected to be within the +2.5-3.0% Y/Y range in the coming months.
• Przemysław Litwiniuk suggested that his 'preliminary' view was that there was room for c. 50bp worth of rate cuts next year.
• Joanna Tyrowicz said that 'it can't be said that we are already on the safe side' in the fight against inflation as volatile energy disinflation outweighs heightened services inflation.
• As a reminder, Cezary Kochalski will retire from the Monetary Policy Council on December 21, with President Karol Nawrocki yet to appoint his successor.