GBPUSD TECHS: Moving Average Bullish Crossover
- RES 4: 1.2877 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2716 High Feb 26
- PRICE: 1.2622 @ 16:06 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 1.2606 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 1.2534 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
- SUP 4: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support
The current bullish trend condition in GBPUSD remains intact despite Thursday’s fade in prices. The pair has built on recent gains this week. A positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains in place and note that moving average studies have crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. An extension would open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2534, the 50-day EMA.
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STIR: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage rebounds to $112.760B this afternoon after falling to $92.863B yesterday - the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties rises to 28 from 26 prior.
BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: OATs Continue Short Drift, Gilts And BTPs Flat (2/2)
Elsewhere in European positioning:
- OAT: OAT is in very short positioning, maintaining the longer-term drift in that direction since mid-September (was "short" in our last update). Recent trade suggests shorts cover, however.
- GILT: Gilt structural positioning has shifted to flat vs long previously, with recent price volatility only briefly seeing a dip toward shorts. The most recent week saw some short covering.
- BTP: BTP has exited structural longs for our first update since summer 2025, with our current reading at flat. Longs were reduced in the most recent week of trade.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: March'25 5Y Buy
- +7,000 FVH5 106-14.75, buy through 106-16.5 post time offer at 1316:58ET, DV01 $290,000. The 5Y contract trades 106-14.75 last (-3.25).
