FED: Most Analysts Continue To Expect 1-2 Cuts Rest Of 2025 (3/3)

Selected analysts' notes where their pre-FOMC views are unchanged:

• ABNAmro: "We still see the upcoming meetings as undecided, and expect that a pickup in inflation, and only mild deterioration in the labour market will prevent further cuts in the remainder of the year."
• BofA:  "We stick with our view that the Fed will cut only once more this year, in December. However, after Powell's comment that today's rate cut "isn't just one action", the risk has risen that the second cut will be pulled forward to October (with potentially a third cut in December).
• Citi: "Some investors read Powell agreeing with a reporter that today’s cut is being delivered for “risk management” reasons as hawkish. But we did not, and Powell later clarified that the effectiveness of today’s rate cut depends on expectations of further rate cuts. We continue to expect rate cuts at each of the next four FOMC meetings for a total of 125bp of rate cuts (including today’s) to a terminal rate of 3.00-3.25% with risks skewed toward a lower terminal policy rate."
• Deutsche: "We maintain our baseline expectation that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps at each of its next two meetings in October and December. This path would leave the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75% by year end, consistent with our view of neutral. If near-term data for the labor market and inflation both surprise to the upside, however, we see the potential for the Fed to skip a meeting this year."
• Goldman: "We continue to expect 25bp cuts in October and December—with a 50bp cut possible if the labor market weakens more than we expect—followed by two cuts in 2026 to 3-3.25%. Our probability-weighted Fed path remains a bit more dovish than market pricing."
• ING: "We look for 25bp cuts in October and December with additional cuts in January and March, at which point we think the Fed will take stock of the situation."
• JPMorgan: "we are comfortable in expecting another cut at the next meeting, as well as the two meetings after that. In our view, it would take a major reversal in the loss of momentum in labor market activity for the Fed not to ease next month."
• Unicredit: "Our base case remains one rate cut in December and one in mid-2026, less than financial markets expect. We see inflation moving higher, economic activity picking up somewhat and the unemployment rate not rising by much, if at all, given much lower immigration....  The clear risk, however, is a politicised Fed cutting faster than warranted by incoming data and the outlook."
• Wells Fargo: "With the Fed's dual mandate in tension, what will the central bank do? We think the FOMC will put more weight on employment and cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps at each of its next two meetings, pushing the target range down to 3.50%-3.75% by year-end. We project two more 25 bps rate cuts at the March and June meetings next year followed by a long hold, resulting in a terminal fed funds rate of 3.00%-3.25%."
• Wrightson ICAP: "Nothing in yesterday's Fed communications changed our modal forecast of two additional rate cuts this year.  However, we still think there is a risk that we might only see one more."