EU FINANCIALS: Morgan Stanley: Q3 Earnings Headlines         

ECB Schnabel's slides presented at the EIB's Chief Economist's meeting are here

Key messages are well in line with Schnabel's previous comments:

• "Interest rates are in a good place as inflation stabilises around our 2% target and the economy remains resilient at full employment"
• "Healthy balance sheets, lower uncertainty and fiscal expansion underpin domestic demand, counteracting a decline in net exports"
• "So far little evidence of China dumping exports, while the pass-through of a stronger exchange rate is likely to be limited"
• "Upside risks to inflation dominate, with tariffs, services inflation, food inflation and fiscal policy as potential drivers"
• "Monetary policy should keep a steady hand, tolerating moderate deviations from target"

• Bullish conditions for GBPUSD have been bolstered this morning, following the break of the bull trigger located at 1.3595 (Aug 14 high) which places the pair at two-month highs. The rally that started Sep 3 has retraced the steep Sep 2 sell-off, suggesting the corrective cycle between Aug 14 - Sep 3 is over. Immediate resistance is found at 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug 1 downleg, before 1.3681, the Jul 4 high.
• ING comment that the travails of the UK Labour government have not dented appetites for the high-yielding pound. They think EURGBP looks comfortable in its 0.86-0.87 range, while GBPUSD could break above resistance at 1.3590/3600 this week if the Fed is sufficiently dovish.
• Official labour market data headlines Tuesday’s calendar, expected to continue to show mixed signals. 3m/3m employment is expected to increase by over 200k again in the 3-months to July while the flash monthly payrolls print is expected to modestly decline by around 11k in August.
• UK CPI data and the BOE decision also take place this week, placing a heightened amount of attention on sterling this week.

ERH6/ERM6 97.5625 put calendar spread, paper pays 0.75 for 3k all day