EU FINANCIALS: Morgan Stanley - New Issues - € B'mark Sr Bail in 6NC5, 11NC10
Curve - MS did pretty well in Q1. The MS Curve trades wide of GS and JPM to such an extent it is difficult to match with the rating view. It trades a little wide to BAC which makes sense given the latter's size and diversification.
QoQ - US Banks have underperformed by 5bps, with MS trading in line with US banks. US Banks trade c~10bps wide of EUR banks with a similar ave maturity and an ave of 1 notch better rating
6NC5
- IPT - MS+160
- FV - MS+126 - Arguably the most interesting. The MS 0.497% 2031 trades Z+118 at Price 87.3. At 0.5bps/px would correct to z+124 - which only implies a 2bps extension (for 0.3 years). Generally US bank bonds, with high little px correction, and so we think it could trade as low as +126 reasonably comfortably.
- Exp. Ratings: A1/A-/A+
11NC10
- IPT - MS+190
- FV - MS+160 - linear extrapolation of the longest 3 MS bonds - 2 of which trade well away from par with little adjustment by the market.
- Exp. Ratings: A1/A-/A+
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
