POLAND: More Than 20 Drones May Have Violated Polish Airspace-Rzeczpospolita
Rzeczpospolita reports 'unofficially' (without citing specific sources) that there were probably more than 20 (probably 23) Russian drones that violated Polish airspace overnight. Those that posed risk were targeted and shot at, mostly by Dutch F-35 fighters stationed in Poland since September 1 for the remainder of this year.
- OSINT analyst/consultant Jarosław Wolski writes on X that the incident appears to be a product of an overlap of two separate incidents: (1) the appearance of 'bait' Gerbera drones which crossed into the Polish territory in random directions and (2) the incursion of Shahed/Geran drones that travelled along a pre-determined arc-shaped trajectory from the north toward the south and eventually toward targets in Ukraine. While the former may have been a result of an error/electronic warfare, the latter seems to be a deliberate provocation. His hypothesis is that the trajectory of Shahed/Geran UAVs was set to bypass the area covered by Ukrainian air defence systems via Poland and at the same time test Poland's air defence and procedures.
- While the main aim of the operation may have been an attack on Ukrainian targets as part of the ongoing invasion, rather than aggression against a NATO member state, the incursion signals Russia's readiness to test the alliance's resolve in defending its eastern flank, even if such attempts remain limited to occasional incidents.
- Separately, Belarus' Chief of the General Staff Pavel Muraveyka said that Minsk alerted Poland and Lithuania about drones that lost track due to the impact of electronic warfare assets during a 'night-time exchange of strikes". He added that Belarus destroyed some of these lost drones mid-air and intends to maintain existing channels of communication with Poland and the Baltic countries. The Polish side has not commented on Muraveyka's remarks, but the official message has been that the incursion was most likely deliberate.
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MACRO UPDATE: Private Sector Cons Sits Inbetween Government and IFO Projections
For an updated full view of private sector consensus on German economic indicators see below. Again, momentum to generally pick up over the coming quarters.
- Growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 stand at 0.3% Y/Y and 1.0% Y/Y, respectively. This would mean an end to the two-year contraction period which just passed, and does represent an improvement in sentiment over views for a potential third consecutive year of negative growth present ahead of the German fiscal stimulus announcement.
- For comparison, the German government continues to be more pessimistic than this, seeing flat real GDP (0.0% Y/Y) this year ahead of "around 1%" in 2026 in their forecast published late April. Note that this was before the current government took over in the economy ministry, which is responsible for the forecast. IFO institute meanwhile sees a stronger 0.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, citing "numerous indicators suggest that the crisis in the German economy reached its low point in the winter half-year 2024/2025" back in June.
MACRO UPDATE: Analysts' German Growth Projections Picking Up
Revisions to consensus on German GDP during the last months swayed towards growth being a bit more pronounced on a Y/Y basis in the coming quarters than seen previously. The chart below shows growth estimates (from seven primary dealer analysts via Bloomberg) for Q3 / Q426 stand higher than where they were one (and also three) months ago. Growth then continues to be expected to pick up towards 2026, with a similar pace as before.
- However, note that these forecast updates came after the Q2 Destatis GDP print seeing an inline Q/Q reading (of -0.1%) but a higher-than-expected Y/Y print (of 0.4% vs 0.2% cons) amid some partially notable revisions of the prior GDP data. This may well have had an influence on analysts' projections for the quarters ahead.
- From a fundamental perspective, the analyst updates came following the US-EU trade deal, finance minister Klingbeil's presentation of the 2026 budget (amid his updated financial plan for 2027-29, recap here) as well as the reveal of the details of a private sector investment initiative in Germany.
- Revisions for both private investment and government spending in Germany appear materially unchanged over the last month (a contained pick-up of the private investment near-term f'cast stands out to some degree - now seen at 1.1% Y/Y in Q325). Net exports meanwhile are seen a little lower in the short term than before.
- Elsewhere, RBC today has published a report on fiscal stimulus in Germany, finding that "a high share of additional spending is going to go on 'high multiplier'" items - leading to their conclusion that "what we do know looks very promising for German growth" at least for 2025 and 2026. Beyond that, they see the effects to fade, though.
GOLD: Premium Of COMEX Futures Erased As Markets Await US Executive Order
The premium of the first COMEX Gold future over London spot has been mostly erased, currently at ~$6 after peaking at over $50 on Friday. A White House official told Bloomberg late Friday that the administration would issue an executive order clarifying gold tariffs in “the near future”.
- The driver of the COMEX future/London spot widening on Friday was an FT report suggesting US imports of gold bars from Switzerland would be subject to the recently announced 39% tariffs, potentially hampering (or at least making more expensive) the supply of physical gold into the US.
- This morning, spot prices are down over 1% to $3,358, with the first COMEX future down 2.2% at $3,364.
- A thawing in tensions between Russia and the West ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska may be weighing on Gold this morning, even as the reported conditions for a ceasefire agreement appear untenable to European leaders and Ukraine.
- The bull cycle in spot gold that started Jun 30 remains intact, with initial support not seen till $3,268 (Jul 30 low). More broadly, spot remains comfortable within the $3,250 to $3,450 range which has contained price action since the start of June.
Figure 1: First COMEX Gold Future vs London Spot Spread (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P)
