EU UTILITIES: Moody's changes 3 Italian Utils to Positive

• RES 4: 5341.00 High Mar 27  
• RES 3: 5263.01 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg 
• RES 2: 5165.00 High Apr 3
• RES 1: 5101.10/5140.00 50-day EMA / High Apr 25             
• PRICE: 5108.00 @ 06:36 BST Apr 28 
• SUP 1: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support                      
• SUP 2: 4664.00 Low Apr 10
• SUP 3: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger         
• SUP 4: 4336.00 Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)     

Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 5101.10. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a continuation of the corrective uptrend. This would open 5165.00 next, the Apr 3 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 4812.00, the Apr 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.

• Tomorrow, Italy will hold a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction. On offer will be E3.0-3.5bln of the on-the-run 5-year 2.95% Jul-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005637399), E3.5-4.0bln of the new 3.60% Oct-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005648149) and E1.5-2.0bln of the Apr-33 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005620460).
• On Wednesday, Germany will hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1.5bln of the on-the-run 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009) alongside E500mln of the 2.50% Jul-44 Bund (ISIN: DE0001135481).
• On Friday, Belgium will look to conclude the week by holding an ORI auction. Details will be announced the preceding day.

NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees redemptions of E26.2bln: E21.7bln of a formerly 10-year Spanish Obli, E3.0bln of a formerly 10-year EFSF bond and E1.5bln of a formerly 5-year Luxembourg LGB. Coupon payments for the week total E9.6bln of which E5.0bln are Italian and E4.5bln are Spanish. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E11.3bln versus positive E1.1bln last week.

The EU, Belgium, Italy and Germany all look to hold auctions in the week ahead. There are also possible Belgian and Finnish syndications in upcoming weeks. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week of E24.6bln, up from the E20.5bln sold last week.

For the full MNI Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix with a review of last week's issuance and a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance, click here.

• This morning, the EU will look to hold its first ever triple-line EU-bond auction. On offer will be up to E2.5bln of the 2.875% Oct-29 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3L1CN4), up to E2bln of the 3.00% Dec-34 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4ES4) and up to E1.5bln of the 3.375% Oct-38 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4D74).
• Belgium will also hold a conventional auction today with E2.8-3.2bln of OLOs on offer. On offer will be the 2.85% Oct-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000360694), the first reopening of the on-the-run 10-year 3.10% Jun-35 OLO (ISIN: BE0000363722) and the 2.75% Apr-39 Green OLO (ISIN: BE0000356650).