The Swedish monthly GDP indicator fell 0.2% M/M in May, in line with the three-analyst strong consen...
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The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6408, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.
A dovish move in GBP STIRs on the back of the softer-than-expected pay growth and larger-than-expected fall in payrolled employees detailed in previous bullets.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 4.207 | -0.5 |
Aug-25 | 4.024 | -18.8 |
Sep-25 | 3.972 | -24.0 |
Nov-25 | 3.822 | -39.0 |
Dec-25 | 3.752 | -46.0 |
Feb-26 | 3.652 | -56.0 |
Mar-26 | 3.631 | -58.1 |
Although Norges Bank is not under pressure to cut rates due to a relatively resilient mainland economy, the unwind of Q1 inflationary pressures (which delayed the first cut back in March) suggest there is scope to ease at least once in H2 - in line with the March MPR rate path.