GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16
- RES 1: $3365.8 - High Jul 3
- PRICE: $3291.1 @ 07:54 BST Jul 9
- SUP 1: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg
Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note, the recovery from the Jun 30 low also highlights a possible false t-line break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, Jun 30 low.
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EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls
Estox 50: -0.25%, Dax: -0.17%, CAC: -0.08%, FTSE +0.00%, SMI -0.01%.
STIR: GBP STIRs Steady, Showing 40bp Of Cuts Through Dec
GBP STIRs are little changed this morning, with Bund & TY futures operating close to levels seen around Friday’s SONIA futures settlement window.
- BoE-dated OIS is little changed to 0.5bp more dovish through year-end. No change priced for this month’s meeting, 15.5bp showing through August, 19bp through September, 33bp through November and ~40bp through year-end.
- SONIA futures are flat to +2.5.
- BoE MPC member Greene used the word “cautious” in her weekend appearance. While the natural reaction would point to hawkish interest rate readthrough, we note that it’s quite hard to contextualise these comments in isolation. We will try to do so when the video stream to the event becomes available (no ETA).
- A reminder that Greene softened her usually hawkish stance in the wake of the May MPC and wasn’t a hawkish dissenter at that event.
- Greene also reaffirmed expectations for inflation to move to target and stressed that the Bank is “not sanguine” about the prospect of an “inflation hump”.
- Labour market data is due tomorrow, expect our full preview of that release later today. A reminder that the BoE has placed more weight on labour market inferences from surveys, given the long running issues with the ONS readings.
- Elsewhere, the government will publish its spending review on Wednesday, expect plenty more from both us and our political risk team on the matter ahead of that event.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 4.216 | +0.4 |
Aug-25 | 4.057 | -15.5 |
Sep-25 | 4.018 | -19.4 |
Nov-25 | 3.885 | -32.7 |
Dec-25 | 3.817 | -39.5 |
Feb-26 | 3.725 | -48.7 |
Mar-26 | 3.705 | -50.7 |
USD: Extending intraday lows into the EU Sesssion
- The Dollar starts the session in the Red, a continuation from the Overnight session, while the small push lower in US Yields could a be a driver, most Yields are still trading closer to the June high, printed on Friday post NFP.
- Small downside continuation are going through in the Dollar as Europe joins the session.
- A new intraday low for the Greenback against the EUR, GBP, JPY, CZK, THB, SGD, and the ZAR.
- The Kiwi is still the best early performer, up 0.45%, and initial resistance comes at 0.6055 in NZDUSD.
- The Yen is quickly catching up, and is the 2nd best performer now within G10s, with the USDJPY looking to drift back towards 144.00.
- Overall the Yen is still down over 1% for the past 5 days, and small support in USDJPY is seen further out, below the figure, down to 143.44.
- The Pound and the EUR are now also testing intraday lows versus the Yen.
