AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support

German March retail sales came in at -0.2% M/M (real, seasonally-adjusted) and +2.2% Y/Y in March. That follows February's +0.2% M//M (downwardly revised but already known from +0.8%) and January's +0.7% M/M - meaning that while retail sales did not have an overly strong Q1, consumer spending should have the potential for a slightly positive contribution in the flash Q1 GDP data, to be published at 09:00 BST/10:00 CEST. Consensus for that stands at +0.2% Q/Q total.

• Looking at the individual categories, March's decrease appears driven by non-food sales at -0.6% M/M, while food sales were +0.3% M/M. Internet and mail orders stood out positively, at +0.6% M/M, Destatis adds - on a yearly comparison, growth in the sector is notable, at +9.5% Y/Y.
• Looking ahead, consumer sentiment has outperformed expectations recently; while improving despite the US tariff announcements, it remains overall weak.

• MNI: SWISS KOF APR ECONOMIC BAROMETER 97.1

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4108 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3906/3959 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3822 @ 07:59 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

The trend set-up  in USDCAD is unchanged and remains bearish. A fresh cycle low on Apr 21 reinforces the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3959, the 20-day EMA.