AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26
- PRICE: 0.6418 @ 08:02 BST May 30
- SUP 1: 0.6383/77 50-day EMA / 1.0% Lower 10-day Bollinger Band
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
AUDUSD trend signals remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Key support lies at 0.6383, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.
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GERMAN DATA: Retail Sales Keep Open Positive Consumer Spending GDP Contribution
German March retail sales came in at -0.2% M/M (real, seasonally-adjusted) and +2.2% Y/Y in March. That follows February's +0.2% M//M (downwardly revised but already known from +0.8%) and January's +0.7% M/M - meaning that while retail sales did not have an overly strong Q1, consumer spending should have the potential for a slightly positive contribution in the flash Q1 GDP data, to be published at 09:00 BST/10:00 CEST. Consensus for that stands at +0.2% Q/Q total.
- Looking at the individual categories, March's decrease appears driven by non-food sales at -0.6% M/M, while food sales were +0.3% M/M. Internet and mail orders stood out positively, at +0.6% M/M, Destatis adds - on a yearly comparison, growth in the sector is notable, at +9.5% Y/Y.
- Looking ahead, consumer sentiment has outperformed expectations recently; while improving despite the US tariff announcements, it remains overall weak.
MNI: SWISS KOF APR ECONOMIC BAROMETER 97.1
- MNI: SWISS KOF APR ECONOMIC BAROMETER 97.1
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4108 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3906/3959 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3822 @ 07:59 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend set-up in USDCAD is unchanged and remains bearish. A fresh cycle low on Apr 21 reinforces the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3959, the 20-day EMA.
