EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
- RES 1: 0.8456 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8405 @ 16:05 BST May 22
- SUP 1: 0.8394 Low May 16
- SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
This week’s gains in EURGBP have resulted in a brief print above the 50-day EMA at 0.8456. For bulls, a clear break and close above the 50-day average would conclude the recent bearish phase and shift attention to 0.8541 resistance, the May 2 high. To the downside, the 0.8400 handle has been breached in recent weeks, an extension below which would open 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection.
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BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: OATs Underperform, UK Curve Bull Steepens
European FI had a constructive session in the return from a 4-day holiday Tuesday.
- Shrugging off Monday's US Treasury weakness, curves bull steepened early, continuing from Thursday's pre-holiday, post-ECB price action.
- OATs underperformed, with Bloomberg reporting that President Macron is considering calling a snap legislative election in France as soon as the autumn.
- In other developments, BOE's Greene sounded less hawkish on the rate outlook compared with her previous appearances, helping UK rate cut pricing deepen, while Eurozone flash April consumer confidence printed the weakest since November 2023.
- Yields saw a modest spike in the minutes ahead of the cash close on a Bloomberg report that US Treasury Secretary Bessent expects a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions.
- The UK curve bull steepened sharply, with Germany's bull flattening. Periphery EGB spreads were flat/slightly tighter to Bund.
- Tuesday's calendar highlight is flash April PMIs, while we also get UK public sector net borrowing data and an appearance by BOE's Pill, Bailey and Breeden.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.5bps at 1.661%, 5-Yr is down 3.7bps at 1.982%, 10-Yr is down 2.9bps at 2.443%, and 30-Yr is down 3.7bps at 2.859%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 9bps at 3.83%, 5-Yr is down 6.4bps at 3.98%, 10-Yr is down 2.1bps at 4.545%, and 30-Yr is up 2.9bps at 5.368%.
- Italian BTP spread down 0.7bps at 116.6bps / French OAT up 1bps at 77.5bps
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $5.7B to Price Tuesday
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 04/22 $2B #State Street $700M 3NC2 +73, $300M 3NC2 SOFR+95, $1B 5Y +85
- 04/22 $1.85B #Kinder Morgan $1.1B 5Y +120, $750M 10Y +150
- 04/22 $1.1B #NY Life Global $700M 3Y +60, $400M 3Y SOFR+88
- 04/22 $750M #Brookfield Asset Management 10Y +140
- 04/22 $Benchmark OCP 5Y, +10Y investor calls
- 04/22 $Benchmark Rentokil investor calls
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage climbs to $137.951B this afternoon from $114.114B yesterday. Usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B. The number of counterparties at 42.
