LOOK AHEAD: Monday-Tuesday Data Calendar: CPI Focus, Fed in Blackout

Mar-13 10:17

No economic data next Monday but US Tsy will auction $57B 13W and $48B 26W bills at 1130ET. Focus on Tuesday's CPI release:

  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • Mar-13 1130 US Tsy $57B 13W and $48B 26W bill auctions
  • Mar-14 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (90.3, --)
  • Mar-14 0830 CPI MoM (0.5%, 0.4%); YoY (6.4%, 6.0%)
  • Mar-14 0830 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.4%, 0.4%); YoY (5.6%, 5.5%)
  • Mar-14 0830 CPI Index NSA (299.17, 300.860)
  • Mar-14 0830 CPI Core Index SA (302.702, 303.736)
  • Mar-14 0830 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (-1.9% rev, --)
  • Mar-14 0830 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (-1.9% rev, --)
  • Mar-14 1720 Fed Gov Bowman community bank event

Historical bullets

USDCAD TECHS: Recent Gains Considered Corrective

Feb-10 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
  • RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
  • RES 1: 1.3475/3521 High Feb 6 / 19 and key short-term resistance
  • PRICE: 1.3368 @ 17:04 GMT Feb 10
  • SUP 1: 1.3345/3262 Low Feb 10 / 2
  • SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
  • SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD is consolidating and price remains above its recent low of 1.3262 on Feb 2. A bearish threat remains present and recent short-term gains are most likely a correction. A resumption of weakness and a break of 1.3262, Feb 2 low, would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3226, the Nov 15 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, the pair needs to clear 1.3521, the Jan 19 high, to signal a stronger reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North Despite Recent Pullback

Feb-10 20:30
  • RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
  • RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
  • RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
  • RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 0.6919 @ 16:59 GMT Feb 10
  • SUP 1: 0.6856 Low Feb 6
  • SUP 2: 0.6781 38.2% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 uptrend
  • SUP 3: 0.6755 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 low
  • SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3

AUDUSD is unchanged Friday. The uptrend remains intact, however, the recent move lower highlights a correction that is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Price has pierced support at 0.6883, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger have been defined at 0.7158, the Feb 2 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North Despite Recent Pullback

Feb-10 20:30
  • RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
  • RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
  • RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
  • RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 0.6919 @ 16:59 GMT Feb 10
  • SUP 1: 0.6856 Low Feb 6
  • SUP 2: 0.6781 38.2% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 uptrend
  • SUP 3: 0.6755 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 low
  • SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3

AUDUSD is unchanged Friday. The uptrend remains intact, however, the recent move lower highlights a correction that is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Price has pierced support at 0.6883, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger have been defined at 0.7158, the Feb 2 high. A break would resume the uptrend.