US-CHINA: MOFCOM Touts 'Stable Supply Chains' After US Affiliate Rule Suspension
(MNI) London - China's Ministry of Commerce has released comments from a departmental spox talking up ties with the US. Asked by a reporter on the MOFCOM's reaction to the US suspending for a year its export control affiliates rule, the spox says, "China is willing to work with the United States, upholding the principles of mutual respect and equal consultation, to strengthen dialogue and exchanges, properly manage differences, and jointly create favorable conditions for promoting mutually beneficial cooperation between enterprises of the two countries and ensuring the security and stability of global industrial and supply chains."
- The affiliate rule, brought in in September, saw export controls imposed on firms that are majority-owned by sanctioned companies. The removal/suspension of the rule was a key aim for Beijing in the talks between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in South Korea at end-Oct. In response, China had imposed its own export controls on rare earths, raising concerns in the US and Europe regarding supply chain stability.
- As Bloomberg News notes, the one-year suspension risks further escalation in November 2026 if a more permanent agreement has not been reached. Alternatively, the US continues to roll over the suspension for another 12 months, but this in turn risks instability as firms prove reluctant to engage in long-term trading arrangements, given the potential for sharp policy reversal.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
