AUSSIE BONDS: Modestly Cheaper But Off Bests After Trade Deal HLs
ACGBs (YM flat & XM +2.5) are modestly stronger but at session cheaps.
- Cash US tsys are 2-3bps cheaper, with a slight flattening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after President Donald Trump has announced an upcoming news conference to reveal a "major trade deal" with an unnamed but "highly respected" country, calling it "the first of many" such agreements to come. Subsequently, the NYT stated that the first trade deal announcement from the US administration would be with the UK (slated for 10am US time on Thursday).
- "ANZ bank's net profit increased over the latest half year to $3.64bn, up 7 per cent compared to the same time last year, with big bank bosses tipping further rises in home prices." (per ABC)
- Cash ACGBs are flat to 3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -5bps.
- Swap rates are lower by around the same amount, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
- The bills strip pricing is flat to -2.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing has changed little across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 4% probability, with a cumulative 105bps of easing priced by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty apart from the AOFM’s planned sale of A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2029 bond.
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ASIA STOCKS: Taiwan Bounces Back as Korea’s Outflows Intensify.
A large inflow into Taiwan after their break as global Investors continue to withdraw from Korea with another day of significant outflow from Malaysia.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$1,552m as of yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$4,773m. 2025 to date flows are -$10,082, m. The 5-day average is -$955m, the 20-day average is -$287m and the 100-day average of -$147m.
- Taiwan: Had inflows of +$1,291m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$552m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$16,956. The 5-day average is -$110m, the 20-day average of -$402m and the 100-day average of -$236m.
- India: Had outflows of -$367m as of 4th, with total outflows of -$630m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative -$14,373m. The 5-day average is -$126m, the 20-day average of +$17m and the 100-day average of -$145m.
- Indonesia: Had inflows of $38m as of the 27/3, with total inflows of +$54m over the prior five days. YTD flows are negative -$1,830m. The 5-day average is +$11m, the 20-day average -$33m and the 100-day average -$34m
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$185m the 4th, totaling -$202m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,331m. The 5-day average is -$40m, the 20-day average of -$34m the 100-day average of -$19m.
- Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$237m as of yesterday, totaling -$419m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,575m. The 5-day average is -$84m, the 20-day average of -$64m the 100-day average of -$39m.
- Philippines: Saw outflows of -$56m as of yesterday, with net outflows of -$71m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$285m. The 5-day average is -$14m, the 20-day average of -$2m the 100-day average of -$6m.
STIR: RBNZ Dated OIS Pricing Firmer Today, Softer Vs Feb Pre-RBNZ Levels
RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-5bps firmer across meetings, with Feb-26 leading.
- 27bps of easing is priced for tomorrow, with a cumulative 98bps by November 2025.
- Relative to February’s pre-RBNZ levels, pricing is flat to 33bps softer led by late 2025 meetings.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Today vs. February’s Pre-RBNZ (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 120.000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 119.960 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 119.594 76.4% retracement of Monday’s high-low range
- RES 1: 119.185 50.0% retracement of Monday’s high-low range
- PRICE: 119.360 @ 06:14 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 118.410/117.895 Low Apr 7 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.410 Low Mar 27
- SUP 3: 117.600 Low Mar 28
- SUP 4: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a ey short-term support
Bobl futures have pulled back from their recent highs and yesterday, the contract traded in a volatile manner. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. The contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 117.895, the 20-day EMA.
