STIR: Modest Hawkish Tilt Post-BoC In Fed Rates, 26bp Cut Priced For Today
Sep-17 15:16
- US rates have seen a steady hawkish adjustment in BoC spillover, starting with the decision before an extension on Macklem’s press release noting that governing council considered leaving rates unchanged and not seeing a recession.
- Moves are contained though ahead of the FOMC decision at 1400ET, not least with the BoC having seen a clear consensus to cut 25bps and there being more comfort that some upward pressures on underlying inflation are easing off.
- Fed funds implied rates are 1.5bp higher since the decision through Dec-Mar meetings, whilst SOFR future implied yields are up to 2.5bps higher in late 2027 contracts (for +4bp on the day).
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 26bp for today, 45bp Oct, 67.5bp Dec, 80.5bp Jan and 95.5bp Mar.
- SOFR implied terminal yield at 2.91% (SFRH7, +3bp) to shift back towards the higher end of its post-payrolls range roughly between 140-150bp of cuts from current levels.
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SECURITY: Zelenskyy Rules Out Territorial Concessions Ahead Of Trump Bilat
Aug-18 15:15
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Fox News that it would be "impossible" to give up territory to Russia, ahead of his bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump, which gets underway in roughly two hours. LIVESTREAM
- His comment, per Reuters, comes after Trump appeared to confirm yesterday that territorial concessions will be required as part of a comprehensive peace deal.
- In a statement on X this morning, Zelenskyy reiterated Russia has escalated attacks on Ukrainian civilian/energy infrastructure: "That is why reliable security guarantees are required."
- A primary unknown ahead of today's summit is the nature of an 'Article 5-like' security guarantee touted by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who described the agreement with Putin as a 'game-changer,' which can be exchanged for a frontline ceasefire.
- Zelenskyy and European leaders will be cautious that such a guarantee may be aimed at severing Kyiv from NATO with a watered-down defence pledge that can be violated without the robust backstop of NATO's Article 5.
- Observers have dialled down expectations of a positive outcome. Simon Schuster notes in Time that Putin's stated goal of addressing the “root causes” of the war includes curbs to Ukraine's sovereignty that cannot be accepted in Kyiv.
- Ian Bond at the Centre for European Reform said: "If Trump thinks that Zelensky is going to agree to give up the fortress cities of the Donetsk oblast, just to get Putin to stop making war on him, he's out of his mind. It shows how little he still understands about the situation and the geography of Ukraine."
- Sam Greene at King's College London writes that Putin's "invitation to Alaska in and of itself was a tactical victory for Putin," adding that Putin’s objective is to "turn Trump into the cudgel with which he would bludgeon Ukraine and Europe..."
FED: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.869 BLN FROM $73.000 BLN TOTAL
Aug-18 15:15
- US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.869 BLN FROM $73.000 BLN TOTAL
FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.167 BLN FROM $82.000 BLN TOTAL
Aug-18 15:15
- US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.167 BLN FROM $82.000 BLN TOTAL
