IDR: Modest Gains Fail to Alter General Trend
* USDIDR has continued in with a modest weakening trend this week, despite starting Friday off wit...
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STIR: Market Wary The RBA May Disappoint Again
RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer across meetings today.
- A 25bp rate cut in November is assigned a 64% probability (peak 80%, pre-data 38%), with a cumulative 23bps of easing (peak 25bps, pre-data 13bps) priced by year-end.
- Compared with the lead-up to previous potential cuts in this easing cycle, the market appears less certain than usual about a November 4 move.
- This caution aligns with the RBA’s pattern over the past year of easing less than what 6-month forward expectations had implied.
- Those expectations currently sit around 3.20%, compared with the cash rate of 3.60%.
Figure 1: RBA Cash Rate Vs. OIS 6M1M (6M Ago)
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
CHINA PRESS: Trade Tension Market Volatility Could Give Investors An Entry Point
CHINA PRESS: China-EU Economic Leaders Hold Call, Discuss Rare Earths
China’s Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao told European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maroš Šefčovič that China remains committed to safeguarding the security and stability of global supply chains and has consistently facilitated the rare earth approval processes for EU enterprises, according to a statement on the Ministry of Commerce website. During a video conference between the two officials, Wang reiterated China’s firm opposition to the broadening of the concept of “national security” in relation to the Nexperia case in The Netherlands. Both sides agreed to convene a session of the China-EU Export Control Dialogue Mechanism in Brussels as soon as possible.
