MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Apr 2025

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Treasury isn’t expected to raise the size of its coupon offerings until Q4 2025 at the earliest, with consensus on such a shift moving following the February refunding announcement to Nov 2025/early 2026, from Aug/Nov 2025 prior.

• As such, attention will be on the upcoming quarterly refunding announcement (April 30) to see whether there is any change from the long-standing guidance. Prevailing opinion is that guidance will be changed in May's refunding round to give plenty of notice ahead of a shift in issuance in November, though overall the perception is that risks are increasing of a later timeline.
• We will provide a full preview of the Refunding announcement at the end of April.
• March Auction Review: March's Treasury auctions brought the following results. Of the 7 nominal coupon auctions, three traded through and four tailed, with the 7-year sale standing out on the weak side according to MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI).
• Upcoming issuance:  April is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $25B in 5Y TIPS and $30B FRN for a total of $370B – a post-Oct 2021 high.
• Buybacks: The past quarter’s buyback results and the upcoming schedule are included later in this publication. Note cash management buybacks pick up in April around key mid-month tax revenues.