MNI UST Deep Dive: MNI Aug 2025 Refunding Review

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Bigger Buybacks, Same Guidance

• Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding for August brought limited surprises on the guidance and near-term issuance fronts, but a meaningful set of enhancements to the buyback program.
• Financing estimates for the upcoming quarters were almost exactly in line with MNI’s estimates, and reflected a large near-term cash raise via bill issuance.
• With forward guidance on increasing coupon sizes left unchanged, and Treasury clearly leaning on bill issuance to meet borrowing requirements, we are likely to see remaining analyst expectations of an early/mid-2026 upsizing pushed back to later in that year.
• MNI maintains its expectation of the next upsizing coming in August 2026 though risks skew to a later date.
• July’s coupon auctions were mixed, with no clear strength in any particular segment of the curve.