Nonfarm payrolls are seen increasing a seasonally adjusted 160k in February in the Bloomberg survey after 143k in January.
Primary dealer analysts see 155k whilst the Bloomberg whisper is just 121k after a weak ADP report.
Specific factors at play this month should be on the smaller side, with potentially a boost from adverse weather but some offsetting role from striking workers.
We don’t expect federal government layoffs and freezing hires to materially show in this report, but the seasonality of the data leaves it susceptible to broader pausing in hiring plans.
The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.0% after a surprise drop in January, in a close call with 4.1%.
AHE growth is seen at 0.3% M/M but with sizeable analyst skew lower, after a strong 0.5% M/M in January. Average weekly hours worked should also be watched closely after a particularly weak January.
With growth concerns from US policy in greatest focus, we expect asymmetrical sensitivity to a soft report, at least initially. There is currently 11bp of cuts priced for May and 71bp for 2025.
Fed Chair Powell follows in a speech on the economic outlook at 1230ET, in one of the last steers before the media blackout begins on Saturday ahead of the March 18-19 FOMC meeting.