MNI US Payrolls Preview: Double NFPs And A Single Unemp Update

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Executive Summary

• It’s an unusual payrolls release this month, with two monthhttps://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Nov2025_Preview_postshutdown_d93b13ee3f.pdfs of data for the establishment survey (payrolls, hours worked and wages) for October and November plus a single report for the household survey (unemployment and participation rates) in November.
• The BLS wasn’t able to conduct a household survey for October under the government shutdown and will have had to run the November survey shortly after the government re-opened.
• Nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at 50k in November after slipping circa -25k in October, with the latter coming from a wide range of expectations for the impact of DOGE deferred resignations.
• The unemployment rate is seen nudging higher again to 4.5% in November after 4.44% back in Sept, but with analysts on balance seeing a risk of 4.4%. The median FOMC participant eyed 4.5% in 4Q25 but with seven participants penciling in 4.6-4.7%.
• The unemployment rate has been a better gauge of underlying labor market health than payrolls growth but Fed Chair Powell has warned of potentially “very technical” factors at play in this household survey.

• Expect continued sensitivity to any surprises here with the labor market at the forefront of policymaker concerns, although the December report due Jan 9 could be more influential for January FOMC views.