MNI US OPEN - Fed Still in Focus, New Governor Annc This Week

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• TRUMP SAYS HE ‘MOST LIKELY’ WON’T AXE POWELL (THE HILL)
• FED OFFICIALS TAKE COOL JOBS REPORT IN STRIDE (WSJ)
• TRUMP TO ANNOUNCE NEW FED GOVERNOR, LABOR STATISTICS CHIEF THIS WEEK (AXIOS)
• EX-CHIEF SAYS BLS CAN WITHSTAND TRUMP PRESSURE (MNI)
• BESSENT SAYS US HAS 'MAKINGS OF A DEAL' WITH CHINA (RTRS)
• CHINA IS CHOKING SUPPLY OF CRITICAL MINERALS TO WESTERN DEFENSE COMPANIES (WSJ)
• OPEC+ MAKES ANOTHER LARGE OIL OUTPUT HIKE IN MARKET SHARE PUSH (RTRS)

Figure 1: Turkish CPI slows further - lowest level since late 2021

NEWS

FED (The Hill): Trump Says He ‘Most Likely’ Won’t Axe Powell

President Trump, who has waffled back-and-forth in recent weeks over whether he would move to oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, signaled Friday that the move was unlikely.

FED (WSJ): Fed Officials Take Cool Jobs Report in Stride

July’s jobs report rattled financial markets and meaningfully raised the prospect that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting in September. But two Fed officials on Friday maintained that the U.S. labor market is still well balanced, describing the latest softness as part of a gradual cooling rather than a worrying deterioration.

U.S./FED (Axios): Trump To Announce New Fed Governor, Labor Statistics Chief This Week

President Trump said Sunday he plans to name a new Federal Reserve governor and Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner this week.

U.S. (MNI): Ex-Chief Says BLS Can Withstand Trump Pressure

The public can trust that the Bureau of Labor statistics will continue to produce gold-standard, scientifically-produced numbers, even amid pressure from President Donald Trump and continuing funding challenges, ex-BLS Commissioner William Beach told MNI Friday.

U.S. (MNI): Manufacturing Needs Fed Cut To Turn Around - ISM

U.S. manufacturing is likely to see a stagnant year unless there is more stability in trade policy and an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its September meeting, Institute for Supply Management CEO Thomas Derry told MNI.

U.S./CHINA (SCMP): August 12 Deadline For China Tariffs Not Set In Stone, Says US Trade Negotiator

The United States is aiming for a possible extension of the tariff pause with China, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a television interview released on Sunday.

U.S./CHINA (RTRS): Bessent Says US Has 'Makings Of A Deal' With China

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday that he believed that Washington has the makings of a deal with China and that he was "optimistic" about the path forward.

U.S./EU (MNI): MEPs Pressure EC To Win US Tariff Concessions

MNI speaks to the head of the European Parliament's EU/U.S. Relations delegation on the trade deal between the two -- on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

GLOBAL TRADE (WSJ): China Is Choking Supply of Critical Minerals to Western Defense Companies

China is limiting the flow of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, delaying production and forcing companies to scour the world for stockpiles of the minerals needed to make everything from bullets to jet fighters.

ECB (BBG): Eurozone Resilient Despite Trade Woes, ECB’s Patsalides Says

The euro area is weathering current geopolitical challenges, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Christodoulos Patsalides.

UK (FT): Motor Finance Redress Scheme To Cost Banks Up To £18bn, Says FCA

Banks that made UK car loans may still need to pay out up to £18bn under a compensation scheme to be rolled out by Britain’s financial watchdog, despite a court ruling on Friday that removed the risk of more widespread redress.

SWITZERLAND (RTRS): Switzerland Could Revise Offer On Trump Tariffs, Business Minister Says

The Swiss government is open to revising its offer to the United States in response to planned heavy tariffs, Business Minister Guy Parmelin said, as experts warned the 39% import duties announced by President Donald Trump could trigger a recession in Switzerland.

JAPAN (NHK): Ishiba To Urge Trump To Sign Order To Cut Auto Tariffs

Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru says he will do all he can to urge US President Donald Trump to quickly sign an executive order to cut auto tariffs, following last month's agreement between the two countries.

CANADA (CBC): Trade Talks With U.S. Will Likely Continue 'Over The Next Couple Of Days,' Says Leblanc

Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, says he expects Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump will have a conversation with each other 'over the next couple of days' as Canada tries to find a way out of a 35 per cent blanket tariff on exports to the U.S.

BRAZIL (RTRS): Trump Says Brazil's Lula Can Call Him Anytime

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva can call him anytime to discuss tariffs and other friction between the countries.

RUSSIA (France 24): Trump Confirms US Envoy Witkoff Visit To Russia Amid Rising Tensions

Donald Trump confirmed Sunday his special envoy Steve Witkoff will visit Russia in the coming week, ahead of a deadline the US president has set for imposing fresh sanctions on Moscow.

CHINA (Shanghai Securities News): There's Room For Both RRR And Interest Rate Cuts, With Structural Tools Focusing On Key Areas.

Several recent meetings have set the tone for monetary policy in the second half of the year. As a key player in macroeconomic regulation, what objectives might monetary policy focus on in the next phase, and what constraints will it face? To consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery, how will monetary policy impact aggregate, price, and structural factors?

EQUITIES (BBG): Apple CEO Tells Staff AI Is ‘Ours to Grab’ in Hourlong Pep Talk

Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook, holding a rare all-hands meeting following earnings results, rallied employees around the company’s artificial intelligence prospects and an “amazing” pipeline of products.

OIL (RTRS): OPEC+ Makes Another Large Oil Output Hike In Market Share Push

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share, as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia.

OIL (Sky): India Hints It Will Keep Buying Russian Oil - Despite Trump Threats

India has indicated it will defy threats made by US President Donald Trump and continue buying Russian oil.

DATA

SWITZERLAND DATA (MNI): Transport Services Dragged Up July CPI Print

Looking at the details of the Swiss CPI print, upside momentum from transport and recreation categories stands out (contributing a combined 0.21pp more than in June). Overall it remains that this was the second consecutive positive print in Swiss CPI.

MARKETS

FOREX: USD Moderates, Aiding Relief Recovery for GBP/USD

• The USD is moderating early Monday, prompting the ICE USD Index to head into NY hours holding the bulk of the Friday pullback - but stopping short of any further weakness. The reaction seen since Friday's poor payrolls print (as well as Trump's subsequent firing of the head of the BLS) has held - keeping markets well priced for a more activist Fed later in 2025.
• Greenback consolidation has aided a bounce for GBP, keeping GBP/USD either side of the 1.33 handle and within range of 1.3345, the 100-dma. Despite this, the bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact for now. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low. These levels could be of greater consequence later this week on the BoE rate decision. The MPC are uniformly expected to cut rates by 25bps, however the vote split among the board will be carefully watched.  
• The short-term bullish corrective phase in USDCAD remains in play despite sharp weakness Friday. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3739 and this has been followed by a break of resistance at 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.17. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat.
• Factory orders and durable goods orders are the scheduled highlights Monday. There are no scheduled Fed appearances today, however any comments or speculation will come under close scrutiny given Kugler's resignation over the weekend. 

BONDS: Off Lows As Early Sell Off Stalls

German and UK yields generally tick higher vs. Friday’s close, taking cues from the U.S., before weakness in crude oil provides some counter.

• Weakness in Treasuries was perhaps linked to suggestions that U.S. President Trump can ultimately have little influence on the BLS data, despite the recent & incoming personnel changes (see our exclusive: Ex-Chief Says BLS Can Withstand Trump Pressure).
• An uptick in equity futures also weighs on bonds, with the above and Trump’s suggestions that he will likely leave Fed Chair Powell in post helping soothe risk appetite after Friday’s sell off.
• Bund futures as low as 129.50 before a recovery to 129.80, Initial support at the July 25 low and bear trigger (128.84) remains untouched,
• German yields flat to 2bp higher, curve steeper. 5s30s back towards 95 vs. closing cycle highs of 98.7bp.
• EGB spreads to Bunds little changed to ~2bp tighter, with the bounce in equities helping promote compression for the periphery (BTPs outperform, after 2bp tighter on the day) after Friday’s risk-off session.
• Gilt yields see a more parallel 1-2bp shift higher. Futures base around 91.25 before a recovery to 92.40. Initial support at the 20-day EMA (91.86).
• Modest hawkish adjustments in EUR & GBP STIRs, but both show a broadly unchanged picture, leaning towards 1 further ECB cut this cycle and 50bp or so of BoE easing through year-end (a BoE cut on Thursday remains over 90% discounted).
• U.S. durable goods (final) and factory orders highlights the macro calendar today.

EQUITIES: ESA Clears First Notable Support Post-NFP

E-mini S&P sold off sharply Friday on the back of the soft NFP print - pushing prices through mid-July lows in the process. This puts price well clear of support at the 20-day EMA, at 6336.64, signaling scope for a deeper retracement toward the 50-day EMA. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures faltered Friday, with short-term weakness resulting in a break of the bear trigger. Having shown below 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 becomes the area of downside interest.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 508.9 pts or -1.25% at 40290.7 and the TOPIX ended 32.45 pts lower or -1.1% at 2916.2.
  Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 23.357 pts or +0.66% at 3583.309 and the HANG SENG ended 225.64 pts higher or +0.92% at 24733.45.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 297.24 pts or +1.27% at 23725.7, FTSE 100 higher by 43.72 pts or +0.48% at 9113.57, CAC 40 up 69.38 pts or +0.92% at 7615.97 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 63.69 pts or +1.23% at 5229.56.
• Dow Jones mini up 304 pts or +0.7% at 44014, S&P 500 mini up 42.75 pts or +0.68% at 6307.5, NASDAQ mini up 176 pts or +0.77% at 23060.

COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Pressured into Friday Close

WTI futures slipped into the Friday close, erasing the gains posted earlier in the week. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.37. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. Gold benefited from the soft NFP print on Friday, returning prices toward the top-end of the recent range. This supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. 

• WTI Crude down $0.71 or -1.05% at $66.59
• Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.65% at $3.062
• Gold spot down $4.28 or -0.13% at $3360.5
• Copper up $3.25 or +0.73% at $446.65
• Silver up $0.28 or +0.76% at $37.332
• Platinum up $1.66 or +0.13% at $1320.97

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
04/08/2025	1400/1000	**	US	Factory New Orders
04/08/2025	1400/1000	**	US	Factory New Orders
04/08/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
04/08/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
05/08/2025	2300/0900	*	AU	S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI
05/08/2025	2300/0900	**	AU	S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI
05/08/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI
05/08/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI
05/08/2025	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Services PMI
05/08/2025	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Composite PMI
05/08/2025	0645/0845	*	FR	Industrial Production
05/08/2025	0700/0900	**	ES	Industrial Production
05/08/2025	0715/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/08/2025	0715/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/08/2025	0745/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/08/2025	0745/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/08/2025	0750/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/08/2025	0750/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/08/2025	0755/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/08/2025	0755/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/08/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/08/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/08/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
05/08/2025	0830/0930	***	GB	S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI
05/08/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	PPI
05/08/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
05/08/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Trade Balance
05/08/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
05/08/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Trade Balance
05/08/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
05/08/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (final)
05/08/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global US Final Composite PMI
05/08/2025	1400/1000	***	US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
05/08/2025	1530/1130	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
05/08/2025	1700/1300	***	US	US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result