EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Figure 1: Final German Inflation Breadth
NEWS
US (WSJ): Trump’s Ukraine Peace Strategy Put to Test After Putin Balks at Cease-Fire
President Trump finds himself a “yes” away from brokering a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine. But it is Russian President Vladimir Putin who has to say it, and he is leaning in the other direction. That has put Trump, the self-professed master dealmaker, in a bind of his own making. After promising Putin wants peace and pressuring Kyiv to back the 30-day fighting pause, Trump will face a decision on imposing new sanctions on Moscow, as he has vowed to do if the Kremlin balks at the U.S.-brokered plan.
US (WSJ): Democrats Clear Way for GOP Funding Bill, Ending Threat of Government Shutdown
The leader of Senate Democrats moved to take the threat of a government shutdown off the table, following a grueling intraparty fight in which lawmakers struggled with how best to resist President Trump’s fast-paced efforts to slim down federal agencies.
ECB (BBG): ECB’s Villeroy Sees Victory Over Inflation ‘Very Soon’
The European Central Bank will win the battle against inflation this year, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. Price increases will return to the ECB’s 2% target “during” 2025 after already falling below that level in France, the Bank of France governor said.
Japan's largest labour confederation Rengo said on Friday its member unions won an average 5.46% increase in wages this year, exceeding 2024's 33 year high of 5.28%, providing impetus for a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, local media reported. The wage increase is slightly higher than forecasts by BOJ officials, however, recent surveys and hearing had suggested they could print stronger.
CHINA (BBG): Officials to hold press conference on consumption measures Monday
China’s benchmark stock index rallied the most in two months on Friday, with consumer shares leading gains on expectations of more policy support for the sector. Officials from the finance ministry, commerce ministry, the central bank and other government bodies plan to hold a press conference Monday on measures to boost consumption.
MNI INTERVIEW: RBA More Reactive In Future - Former Economist - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
DATA
**MNI: SPAIN FEB HICP +0.4% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y
**MNI: FRANCE FEB HICP +0.1% M/M, +0.9% Y/Y
MNI: GERMANY FINAL FEB HICP 0.5% M/M, 2.6% Y/Y
The UK economy contracted modestly in January, weighed by a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. Monthly real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1%, after growth of 0.4% in December, although the economy is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to January, compared with the three months to October 2024, mainly because of growth in the services sector.
MNI: SWEDEN FEB UNEMPLOYMENT 9.4%
EGBS: Bund Futures Easing Back Toward Session Lows As Equities Recover
Bund futures have eased back towards session lows as European equities recover, now -19 ticks at 127.25. A bearish theme remains intact, with the March 11 low at 126.53 providing initial support.
GILTS: Away From Highs As Bunds Falter, Fiscal Questions Eyed
Gilts continue to hold off session highs, largely owing to weakness in Bunds.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.457 | +0.2 |
May-25 | 4.269 | -18.6 |
Jun-25 | 4.210 | -24.5 |
Aug-25 | 4.065 | -39.0 |
Sep-25 | 4.019 | -43.5 |
Nov-25 | 3.923 | -53.2 |
Dec-25 | 3.900 | -55.5 |
FOREX: JPY Falters as Rengo Tally Falls Short of Survey
EQUITIES: S&P Formally Enters Correction Territory
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows this week have reinforced current conditions. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend Sights are on the next important support at 5499.25. The medium-term trend direction in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. However, support at the 50-day EMA, at 5311.55, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a strong short-term bear threat.
COMMODITIES: Momentum Pointed Higher for Gold
A clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and yesterday’s move higher reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh all-time high and sights are on the psychological $3000 handle next. A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The latest sell-off resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
14/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | ![]() | Industrial Production |
14/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ![]() | BoE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey | |
14/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | New Loans |
14/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Money Supply |
14/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Social Financing |
14/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
14/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Wholesale Trade |
14/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | ![]() | Cipollone in panel discussion at "Fifty years of Consob: present and future - Reflections in Bocconi" Milan | |
14/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | ![]() | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
14/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | ![]() | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
14/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | ![]() | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
14/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | ![]() | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |