MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Mind The Gap

Press Conference Q&A live-reported by MNI Analysts and Policy Reporters on our MainWire, IB and Bullets services (transcribed from audio and unedited, transcript may not exactly match what what said - check against delivery)

FedPressConfSept2025.pdf

• RES 3: 140.08 High Jun 13  
• RES 2: 139.05 High Aug 4 
• RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8
• PRICE: 136.56 @ 20:44 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 136.19 - Low Sep 4
• SUP 2: 136.00 - Round number support 
• SUP 3: 135.39 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 4 - Sep 2 - Sep 8 price swing   

A bear threat in JGB futures remains present and the contract has pulled back from its recent highs. A continuation lower would expose 136.19, the Sep 4 low and a short-term bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 136.00 handle, and below. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.30, the Sep 8 high.

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.17/149.14 High Sep 11 / High Sep 3  
• PRICE: 146.73 @ 20:57 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 145.49 Low Seo 17 
• SUP 2: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 3: 144.10 61.8% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 143.45 Low Jul 3 

USDJPY traded sharply lower Wednesday before finding support. The pair cleared support at 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level highlights a stronger bearish threat and highlights a range breakout. Note too that price has pierced 145.80, a trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low. A resumption of weakness would open 145.40, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key resistance is at 149.14, the Sep 3 high.