MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Labor Risks Averted, CPI Next

• FED: SOME SAW STRONG CASE FOR TWO-SIDED RATE GUIDANCE
• FED: MOST CAUTIONED IRAN WAR RAISES DOWNSIDE RISKS
• MNI: ALMOST ALL SUPPORTED HOLDING STEADY IN MARCH-MINUTES
• FED: MOST SAID TOO EARLY TO KNOW IRAN WAR IMPACTS
• FED: OFFICIALS EMPHASIZED IMPORTANCE OF BEING NIMBLE
• FED: COUPLE OFFICIALS PUSHED TIMING OF CUTS INTO FUTURE
• FED: RMP'S LIKELY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AFTER APRIL-SOMA

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17
• RES 3: 0.8789 High Feb 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1
• PRICE: 0.8700 @ 16:42 BST Apr 8
• SUP 1: 0.8686 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 0.8637/10 Low Mar 26 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 4: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25 

A strong rally last week in EURGBP confirmed a clear reversal of the bear cycle between Feb 27 and Mar 16. This opens 0.8747 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb - Mar bear leg. The pullback from recent highs is - for now - considered corrective. The cross has pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8690. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is at 0.8742, the Mar 31 and Apr 1 high.    

• Risk has rallied significantly on Wednesday, reflective of the global optimism surrounding the Iran ceasefire announced late Tuesday. Lower oil prices and higher equities have translated to a substantial weakening of the US dollar, with the DXY around 0.9% lower as we approach the APAC crossover. It is worth noting that the dollar is off its worst levels as caution remains regarding the details of the ceasefire, amid some aggressive rhetoric from Israel’s PM on the war not being over.
• While the dollar index still remains higher in 2026, the Bloomberg dollar index has slipped into negative territory today. Emphasising this point is the surge for higher beta plays in the currency markets, as the likes of ZAR (+2.5%), HUF (+2%), CLP (+2.1%) and MXN (+1.6%) all outperform.
• Within the G10, the Swedish krona is the most notable beneficiary of the renewed optimism across global markets, while NZD continues to relatively outperform peers following the hawkish tilt to the April RBNZ meeting.
• Elsewhere, both AUDUSD and GBPUSD are around 1% higher on the session, however major currencies such as the Euro and yen are relative underperformers. Yhe Canadian dollar has remained extremely stable as the risk-on impulse is offset by lower oil prices. USDCAD sits just 0.15% in the red, and with moving average studies in a bull-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant bull cycle.
• Thursday’s attention turns to US final GDP and PCE data, alongside the release of weekly jobless claims. US CPI on Friday highlights the calendar this week.