MACRO OUTLOOK: MNI US Macro Weekly: Jury’s Still Out On Q2 Downturn

• Treasuries broke through narrow session range late Wednesday, look to finish mostly higher, curves moderately steeper with bonds underperforming all day.
• Early data driven volatility, Tsys tested major resistance after softer than expected April ADP at 62k (sa, cons 115k) after a downward revised 147k (initial 155k) in March.
• Rates and equities reverse course - extended lows after higher than expected GDP Price index, Personal Consumption and Core PCE data. Stocks rebounded after solid PCE income growth reflected in the PCE data partially offset by tariff impacts.
• Jun'25 10Y currently +7.5 at 112-12.5 vs. -16 high (10Y yld currently 4.1562%), resistance at 112-16 (1.0% 10-dma envelope) followed by 113-04 (76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg).
• Trade negotiation related headlines continued to deliver real vol to markets, but it appeared late bounce in rates and stocks was at least partially month end related.

US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver his second major speech in two days to mark his first 100 days in office, following a speech in Michigan yesterday. Today's speech is entitled "Investing in America" and will be delivered from the White House Cross Hall. LIVESTREAM 

• Trump is expected to tout a reported USD$5tn of investments in the US since his entered office. Per the BBC, he will be joined at the White House event by CEOs from Nvidia, GE Aerospace, Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly, SoftBank, and others.
• Trump’s campaign rally-style speech at Macomb Community College, Michigan, yesterday primarily focused on border security and immigration, the policy area where he retains the most public support amid a steady decline in his approval.
• Trump travelled to Michigan with a package of tariff relief for the auto industry designed to insulate the sector from the effects of ‘tariff stacking’. The Executive Order can be read here. A White House fact sheet here.

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4108 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3906/3959 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3820 @ 16:51 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

The trend set-up in USDCAD is unchanged and remains bearish. A fresh cycle low on Apr 21 reinforces the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3959, the 20-day EMA.