MNI: US June Short-Run Inflation Expectations Decline - NY Fed

American consumers' expectations of inflation a year ahead declined in June by 0.2 pp to 3.02%, while three-year-ahead and five-year-ahead measures held steady from the prior month, according to the latest survey from the New York Federal Reserve published Tuesday.

The Fed bank reported in its Survey of Consumer Expectations that the median survey respondent sees inflation three years from now at 3.00% and five years from now at 2.61%. Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 1.5 pp for gas to 4.2%, by 1.9 pp for the cost of medical care to 9.3%, by 1.6 pp for the cost of college education to 9.1%, and by 0.7 pp for rent to 9.1%. Median year-ahead expected change in food prices remained unchanged at 5.5%. Fed officials have been watching closely for any evidence that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Bostic Backs Go-Slow On Rates As Tariffs Linger)

Unemployment and job loss expectations improved in June, according to the New York Fed report. Spending growth expectations slightly declined, while household income growth expectations increased. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.8 pp to 14.0%, its lowest level since December 2024.