MNI: UK MAR GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX -21

• XpertHR median basic pay award in the 3 months to the end of January 2024 fell to +5.1% (vs +6% prior).
• This will be welcome news for the MPC after official ONS wage data remained more sticky than expected in last week's data release (which covers until the end of December 2023). There was a similar fall in mid-2023 from the XpertHR data, so there will be hope that this move downwards signals the start of a more meaningful trend.
• The fall in nominal wage growth had been hoped for given the decline in headline inflation and was reflected by "around half (+53.5%) of pay awards in a matched sample analysis worth less than the previous year's settlement" - which Xpert HR senior content manager flagged last month.
• Attwood, the manager notes "While the median has fallen, it is still elevated by historical standards, with pay awards having not been consistently at this level since 1991. And there are still some inflation-busting deals being made – one-fifth of reviews were worth at least 7%".
• There is still a fair amount of variability in pay awards with lower quartile at +4%, and upper quartile at +6.6%. It will be interesting to watch the upper quartile when the NLW is increased by 9.8% in April - and whether that pulls up the median awards, too.
• Data were collected between 1st November 2023 and 31st January 2024, based on 57 pay award covering 181,174 employees.

• MNI: UK NOV-JAN MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +5.1% :XpertHR

• RES 3: 149.53 - High Mar 22 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 2: 148.74 - High Jul 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 146.26 @ 16:09 GMT Feb 20
• SUP 1: 144.60 - Low Dec 08 / 11
• SUP 2: 143.44 - Low Oct 31 (cont)
• SUP 3: 143.29 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 22 - Apr 18 - May 12 swing

Recent weakness in JGBs resulted in a low print of 145.86, on Jan 26 - and that level is being re-tested after the US CPI release. A stronger reversal is required to signal the end of the recent corrective phase. A resumption of weakness would potentially open 144.60 support. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 147.74, the mid-January high. A break would resume the uptrend. MA studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend.