MNI UK Labour Market Preview: November 2025 Release

For the full preview click here.

• Labour market data has risen in prominence again with the main focus on private regular earnings (AWE).
• We see risks tilted slightly to the upside – which might see a larger-than-usual initial market reaction if we round up to 4.3%Y/Y (given the emphasis Governor Bailey is placing on the data ahead of the December MPC meeting and that markets already price in 17bp of cuts for this meeting).
• We look at the updated BOE staff projections as well as median expectations.
• The unemployment projection for Q3 is expected at 4.87% in the new MPR projections with 11/12 sellside previews we have read also looking for a number that rounds to 4.9%. 
• The main bright spot in last month’s report was the payrolls revisions which have left the series looking as though it has stabilised rather than fallen over the past 3-months. We haven’t seen much discussion on whether there will be further revisions here but the median of the previews that we have read looks for a flat flash October print (while the Bloomberg consensus looks for -3k).