MNI UK Inflation Preview: September 2025

For the full document including sellside summaries click here.

• September CPI data on Wednesday should be significant as it is expected to mark the peak in CPI as it is boosted largely by base effects. The median of the previews that we have read look for a 4.0%Y/Y headline print which is almost exactly in line with the BOE’s 3.99%Y/Y projection. Note that this follows the BOE’s August projection coming within a hundredth at 3.79%Y/Y.
• Despite some MPC members appearing to have more entrenched views, we think that this data release will have huge importance for the prospects for a Q4 cut. We think that markets continue to underprice the possibility of a November cut (only 2.6bp priced at writing) with 9.1bp priced by December.
• We look through the details of what is expected in the upcoming CPI print and detailed expectations from the sellside.
• Petrol price and air fare base effects expected to boost headline Y/Y CPI by 7-9 hundredths while there is focus on the index date and tube strike, accommodation, catering and tuition fees.
• Core goods prices expected broadly unchanged.
• Food risks skewed to the downside, alcohol and tobacco to the upside.