MNI UK Inflation Preview - August 2024

MNI (LONDON)

• The August inflation print will have already been seen by the MPC – under the early access agreement they had been given the Monday morning.
• The report follows a big downside miss in the July data – with the largest driver by far much softer-than-expected accommodation prices.
• The lowest sellside estimate for services CPI in the previews that we have read came in at 5.38%, over two tenths above the 5.17%Y/Y print seen in July. The median of the previews that we have read came in at 5.5%Y/Y (with the mean at 5.55%, the Bloomberg median was a little higher at 5.6%). The highest estimates in the previews that we read of 5.7%Y/Y were all, however, still below the BOE’s 5.84%Y/Y forecast (from its August MPR).
• The surprise to services in July was the main story, but it was also noteworthy that both core goods (non-energy industrial goods) and food prices surprised to the upside versus the BOE’s forecasts.

For the full document including over a dozen sellside expectations see: UK_Inflation_Preview_2024_09_Release.pdf