UK DATA: MNI UK Inflation Insight: September 2025

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 174.50 High Sep 19 
• PRICE: 174.28 @ 07:16 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 173.14/171.93 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and price is trading at its recent highs. The cross last week breached resistance at 173.97, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.14, the 20-day EMA.

• This was one of lightest trading session for Bund overnight and in an extremely tight 6 ticks range.
• Even Rates (Euribor), the strip was seeing under 1k lots, as the street wait on the Prelim PMIs from Europe, UK, US and Speakers, including Fed Powell.
• One of the Main focus throughout this Week is on the Fed speakers given the splits in the last FOMC meeting.
• Initial support for Bund was seen at 128.04, this held Yesterday after printing a 128.01 low.
• Below the latter, opens to 127.61.
• Some desks might look at Yesterday's high of 128.41 for the first resistance, but better will now be seen towards 128.82, followed by the 129.13 gap, tested that level to the tick during the last FOMC meeting.
• As mentioned, PMIs and Fed Speakers will be at the forefront for Today's session, but supply will also be in play.
• SUPPLY: Netherlands €5bn 2056, UK £1.5bn 2056 (equates to 24.9k Gilt) could weigh, German €4.5bn Schatz (equates to 42k Schatz) should weigh into the bidding deadline, and US sells $69bn of 2yr Notes.
• SYNDICATION: Portugal 8yr Benchmark/€2054 Tap.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Muller, Kocher, Cipollone, BoE Pill, Fed Goolsbee (x2), Bowman, Bostic, and of course Powell.

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.80 @ Close Sep 22
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces this theme and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.