MNI UK Inflation Insight: May 2025
Jun-18 17:43By: Tim Davis
Inflation+ 3
- Headline CPI for May came in at 3.36%Y/Y exactly in line with the BOE’s forecast (published in its May MPR), albeit with a different component split.
- With the number rounding to 3.4% there was a marginal upside surprise to the MNI median of 3.3% (which was also the Bloomberg consensus).
- Services CPI was a slight downside surprise to both the market and BOE at 4.68%Y/Y (BOE 4.73%, MNI median 4.75%, Bloomberg consensus 4.8%) while core at 3.67%Y/Y was higher than market estimates but lower than the BOE’s forecast.
- Services lower than expected, core goods higher than consensus and food higher than expected were all views that we had expressed in our CPI preview.
- There were no large one-off factors that we expect to reverse next month (although air fares is now a little on the soft side but that would only have a small impact of a couple of hundredths on headline CPI if it moved higher again).
