MNI UK Inflation and Labour Market Preview: April 2025 Release

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• It’s a 4 day week for UK markets but it could be significant with both labour market (Tues) and inflation data (Wed) due for release. The data has taken a bit of a backseat to global developments recently as markets have looked to assess how impacted the UK will be from Trump’s tariffs and how the Bank of England will respond.
• The Bank of England forecast headline CPI at 2.71%Y/Y and the MNI median looks for a potential downside surprise here (2.62%Y/Y) while the Bloomberg consensus is broadly in line with the Bank’s forecast at 2.7%. With the exception of Deutsche Bank, all of the analyst previews are in a 2.6-2.7% range, however, with those forecasting to 2dp within the 2.60-2.70% range, too. We look into more detail at the components.
• We still think that single most important print in the labour market release remains the private sector regular (i.e. non-bonus) AWE. This came in at 6.00%Y/Y in the 3-months to December, and the vast majority of sell side estimates we have seen look for it to remain at 6.0%.