MNI: UK FEB CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -20

Hard to pinpoint a direct driver of the second-round bid in core global FI markets, continued focus on Chinese equity weakness (and a move off best levels for Euro Stoxx 50 futures) and geopolitical worry centred on the Middle East provide the most obvious headline points, although both were already established during the Asia-Pac session.

• The latter point (Middle East worry) also seems to have allowed the early supply news-induced move lower in crude oil futures to reverse.
• Peripheral EGBs are now wider vs. Bunds on the day with European equity benchmarks off bests, leaving the 10-Year BTP/Bund spread a handful of bp off the near 2-year tights flagged earlier, last printing at ~155bp.
• Also note that some Asia desks flagged an increase in latent demand for Tsys at current yield levels.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has confirmed that Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will still be in office at the time of the next general election amid increasing speculation that the gov't could announce sizeable personal tax cuts in the 6 March budget statement. This comes ahead of a general election that is widely expected to take place in Q424.

• Speaking to Sky News, Sunak states that on tax cuts "we'd like to do more when it's responsible to do so". Since Sunak took office in late 2022, the gov't has not engaged in notable tax cuts, with the emphasis on 'steadying the ship' following the turbulent tenure of former PM Liz Truss.
• However. writing in the Mail on Sunday, Hunt claimed that "My priority in the upcoming Spring Budget will be to build on our progress and go even further to drive economic growth. Because if we can sustainably grow the economy, we can relieve the pressure on families and generate the revenue necessary to invest in the public services we all rely on.", indicating that spurring growth through tax cuts will be a key election platform for the governing Conservatives.
• The shift towards tax cuts comes as YouGov publishes an opinion poll for The Times showing that across all voter segments (see chart below), the electorate at present appears more in favour of greater public spending in lieu of tax cuts.
• Also, cryptically, the No.10 Downing Street X/Twitter page has posted a comment stating 'Something exciting is coming'. No clear signals of what this might refer to year.

Source: The Times/Sunday Times, YouGov. Fieldwork 10-11 Jan

As per Bloomberg:

• The EU (EUROPEAN UNION), rated AAA (Fitch) / Aaa (Moody's) / AA+ (S&P) / AAA (Scope) and backed by the European Union Member States and the EU budget, has mandated BofA Securities, Citi, Credit Agricole CIB, DZ BANK, and NatWest Markets as Joint Lead Managers for its upcoming EUR Fixed Rate RegS Bearer dual tranche transaction comprising an increase of EU 3.125% December 2030 (EU000A3LNF05) and an increase of EU 3.000% March 2053 (EU000A3K4DY4) benchmark lines.
• The transaction will be launched tomorrow, subject to market conditions.