MNI UK Data Preview: September 2025 Release - CPI and Labour

For the full analysis report and sell side summaries click here.

• Both labour market data and CPI data will have already been released to MPC members this morning, and both data releases are important for future monetary policy despite markets pricing in only around a 1/3 probability of a rate cut this year (and not fully pricing a 25bp cut until April 2026).
• We think that both Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Ramsden are very much focused on the labour market print (probably a little more so than inflation). Along with Breeden, all three members are likely needed on board in order for another rate cut this year to materialize.
• We think that the market focus will switch back to AWE private regular pay data. Both the median and mean estimate from the previews that we have read is that this will fall to 4.65%Y/Y in the 3-months to July.
• Headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged on a rounded basis at 3.8%Y/Y (from 3.83%Y/Y in July). The BOE's August MPR forecast is for 3.79%Y/Y while the median of the previews that we have read also looks for a 3.8% print. The focus will be on the unwind of air fares as well as how much higher food inflation climbs.
• We include summary tables for sell side views on the releases as well as including full summaries of analysis inflation views.