MNI UK Data Preview: October 2025 Release - Labour Market Data

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• Labour market data is still incredibly important - particularly we think for Governor Bailey's view as to whether he rules out voting for a Q4 cut or not. We look at the wider MPC implications for the data.
• We look at the mechanics of the private regular pay release and conclude that a surprise to the 4.5%Y/Y consensus print for the 3-months to August is unlikely - but would be significant.
• We also look through the wider release.