MNI BOE Preview: April 2026: Update with Analyst Views

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• We have updated our preview with a summary of analysts' key views and comments.
• Just under half 8/18 (44%) of the sellside views that we have read that specific voting expectations look for an 8-1 vote split (with Pill hawkishly dissenting). The remaining analysts were split evenly (5/18 each, 28%) between a unanimous 9-0 vote and a 7-2 vote split. For 3/5 they saw Pill and Greene as hawkish dissenters in their base case, BNP Paribas expect Pill and Mann while Barclays expects Pill and Lombardelli.
• We preview Thursday's MPC meeting where we see Bank Rate on hold with a 7-2 or 6-3 vote split (with Mann, Pill and potentially Lombardelli as hawkish dissenters).
• We also round up the major datapoints and review each in turn: labour market, CPI data, the DMP survey, flash PMI, Brightmine wage data as well as pulling in the highlights of the BOE Agents' Survey.
• We discuss the view each MPC member is likely to hold and summarise the highlights of their recent comments.
• In terms of the opening statement, we don’t think there is enough agreement within the MPC as to whether the risks of second round effects are higher than downside risks to inflation from a potentially slowing economy and therefore expect the guidance to remain very non-committal.