MNI UK CPI Preview: February 2025

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• The February 2025 release is a bit later in the month than usual (possibly due to the 2025B weights update).
• Headline CPI is expected to remain around 3.0% while both core and services CPI are all expected to tick down a tenth according to the previews we have read to 3.6% (with upside risks) and 4.9% respectively. Core goods and food / tobacco prices are expected to increase, however, with the latter keeping headline unchanged.
• We note that goods inflation, and not just services inflation is now important for the MPC - particularly if food and core goods prices continue to increase.
• There is also uncertainty over the survey date this month.
• We also look at the main takeaways from the 2025B weights publication.