MNI UK CPI Preview: April 2025

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• It would not be hyperbolic to describe the April CPI print as potentially the most important UK data point of the year. There are a number of price resets that only occur on an annual basis that take place in April. The increase in minimum / National Living wages as well as the employer NIC increase all came into effect in April, too. Complicating matter will be Easter effects that could potentially skew the data.
• Energy and water bills are expected to add a combined 0.7ppt to headline CPI, but there are a number of other factors at play here.
• We look at the potentially important drivers and the differences between consensus and BOE expectations across the main special aggregates. For example there is a huge divergence between sellside services CPI forecasts from 4.70-5.10% with a majority of analysts looking for a 4.8%or 4.9% print. The BOE expects a pick up to 5.00%.