SNB: MNI SNB Preview: March 2025 - End In Sight, Question Is When
Mar-19 09:38
Executive Summary:
- Markets see a 25bp cut to 0.25% at Thursday’s meeting as most likely but do acknowledge the risks of a hold, with OIS-implied odds standing around 70/30 in favour of easing
- Inflation has slowed further since the December meeting, but has printed slightly above the conditional SNB inflation forecast for Q1 so far. This, together with any potential changes to the policy statement rate outlook, could give a hint on terminal rate considerations
- CHF has proved volatile but overall stands lower in real, trade weighted terms compared to the December meeting – while the base case is for unchanged FX communications, any new rhetoric here would also warrant attention
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ESM ISSUANCE: 10-year Feb-35 syndication: Spread set
Feb-17 09:37
- Size: E2bln WNG
- Books in excess of E8.5bln (ex JLM interest)
- Spread set at MS+42bps (guidance was MS+45 area)
- Maturity: 26 February 2035
- Coupon: Long first
- Settlement: 24 February, 2025 (T+5)
- ISIN: EU000A1Z99W5
- Bookrunners: BofA (DM/B&D), DB, Santander
- Timing: Books to close at 10:00GMT / 11:00CET
From market source
GERMAN DATA: New Metric Sees Economic Production +0.7% M/M in Nov
Feb-17 09:34
German economy-wide production rose 0.7% M/M (swda) in November, and but fell 0.6% Y/Y.
- Released today for the first time, this new composite economic indicator “combines four short-term indices covering most of the non-financial business economy, namely the indices of production in industry, construction and the service sector and the deflated turnover index for trade. Due to the relatively broad coverage of the index, it provides a comprehensive picture of the monthly development of economic activity in Germany", Destatis adds.
- The index value is the weighted average of the four subindices.
- In 2023, it accounted for around 71% of total value generation in the German economy. Sectors not covered include public services, finance and insurance services, agriculture, and a small "other services" group.
- Compared to GDP, the new index also does not deduct intermediate inputs, but only measures total production output. "GDP and the production index for the economy as a whole only develop similarly if the share of intermediate consumption in the production value i.e. the intermediate input ratio, remains constant."
- Destatis plans to reduce the time lag of the production index in the future.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI speaks to former BOJ executive director
Feb-17 09:30
MNI speaks to former BOJ executive director Kenzo Yamamoto..-On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
