MNI SARB Review - Sep 2025: Split Decision To Press Pause

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Executive Summary:

• The SARB voted 4-2 to keep rates on hold; dissenters voted for a 25bp cut.
• The inflation outlook was adjusted higher on food, fuel and electricity prices.
• The MPC cited the need to monitor the impact of prior easing and evolution of risks.

The rate-setting panel paused its rate-cutting cycle in a split decision, with two dissenters casting their votes in favour of a 25bp cut. The outcome matched the low-conviction consensus call for a hold. According to Governor Lesetja Kganyago, members were broadly aligned in their assessment of the economy, but a majority preferred to take a breather and observe the impact of earlier monetary easing. The updated set of forecasts charted faster GDP growth and a higher headline inflation path, but the SARB also acknowledged a decline in inflation expectations and contained core inflation.