MNI SARB Review - Mar 2025: Extreme Uncertainty Stops Cut

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Executive Summary:

• A majority of four members authorised a halt in the rate-cutting cycle.
• Inflation risks were assessed to the upside despite short-term containment.
• The Committee pointed to “extreme levels of uncertainty.”

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 4-2 to keep the repo rate unchanged at 7.50%, pressing pause after a sequence of three successive 25bp cuts. The vote split suggests that the decision was close, although the figure itself is merely suggestive evidence. Although members were relatively optimistic about short-term inflation developments, they assessed medium-term risks to the upside. Alongside “extreme levels of uncertainty” in the global economy, this was enough to persuade the Committee to sit on its hands.